Prechter's Predictions 2006

Forecasts for the Social-Mood Downtrend

Here is a partial list of mood opposites presented in Chapter 14 of The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior. Generally, all kinds of social units will trend toward the style of behavior on the “negative mood” pole, characterized by the right-hand expressions below.

Positive mood/Negative mood
concord / discord
confidence / fear
convergence / polarization
daring / defensiveness
desiring power over nature / over people
embrace of effort / avoidance of effort
forbearance / anger
inclusion / exclusion
liberality / restriction
optimism / pessimism
tendency to praise / tendency to criticize
togetherness / separatism

The simplest forecast to make is that social mood and its expressions will escalate substantially toward the right-hand descriptions in the above list. We can also attempt some specific forecasts. Those below are presented in no particular order beyond their general categories. They are based upon the conjecture that social mood is about to accelerate toward the negative within a Grand Supercycle degree decline. All of these forecasts should be fulfilled probably within a dozen years (by 2018) (by the end of wave (a)) but at least within 60 years (by the end of wave (c)).

Finance
--Stock markets around the world will continue to fall. Ultimately, the averages will drop more than 90 percent.
--Real estate values will fall more than they did in the 1930s and 1940s.
--The Federal Reserve chairman will be labeled a fool who is greatly responsible for the collapse.
--The dollar will lose its place as the world’s reserve currency. Either gold, a currency backed by gold (such as the Islamic dinar), or the Chinese yuan will take its place.
--Bearish speculators will make a lot of money, and safety-minded investors will see their purchasing power rise.
The Economy
--The trend toward economic contraction that began in 2001 will continue to develop into a depression.
--The unemployment rate in the U.S. and in most countries around the world will rise and eventually exceed 25 percent.
--A record number of manufacturing companies in the U.S. will fail.
--Consumer confidence will fall to record low levels.
Politics
--The occupation of Iraq by the U.S. will progress from a quagmire to a financial, political and public relations disaster.
--Politics will become far more polarized, splintered and radical.
--The U.S. will threaten and possibly attack more countries. More countries will oppose U.S. interests.
--The Third World War, which began on 9/11/01, will escalate.
--The U.S. will increase restrictions on immigration.
--Both patriotism and anti-government sentiment will grow into powerful emotional forces.
--Openness and transparency will give way to secrecy. Spies and exclusive social organizations will have increased standing and power.
Other Social Trends
--Religion will become increasingly popular. Its advocates will become increasingly passionate. Religious intolerance will increase.
--Science will be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes.
--Epidemics will increase in number and severity. Malaria will return to the U.S. Eventually, DDT will be re-legalized.
--Films will break new ground in horror, probably with themes that include suicide and torture.
--The U.S. space program will be shut down.
--Gangsters, pirates and other outlaws will become popular folk heroes.