Bird Flu- facts and figures
Received from friends in the medical industry- not sure how much actual science is involved in this article (and seems like a good ad for Tamiflu), so read it using the same critical facilities we should read all articles in the media with!
Bird Flu facts/figures
●H5N1 flu occurs in poultry in SE Asia and Russia
●It is carried by a wide range of wild birds in South-east Asia and is spread by
Them e.g., to chickens in central Russia. It has recently been recorded in migratory Bird species in Finland, and because of this threat, the Dutch Government has recently banned the outdoor farming of all poultry. NZ sources some of its Migratory birds from areas that currently have infected wild bird populations and such birds are clearly capable of introducing the infection to NZ. However, bird Flu has yet to be recorded in NZ in any incoming wild birds.
●H5N1 is coming! Only the timing and the rapidly with which it explodes around the world is unknown.
●The virus is highly pathogenic to humans e.g. an outbreak in USA in 1998 resulted in 6 deaths in 18 reported cases of chicken to human transmission (33%). Similar infections have led to the recent death of 150+ folk in SE Asia.
●The death rate following human-to-human transmission is unknown. Mortality rates of 20% of infected humans are expected. Based on mortality data from SE Asia, and on that from the 1918 pandemic, highest mortalities thought likely to occur in fit young males, the aged, pregnant women, and those immunologically compromised. Some data exists to suggest lower mortality in infants and those who have been infected with or immunized against distantly related strains of the virus in recent years. However, this is clearly ‘best guess’ information.
●The virulence of the current H5N1 strain may change when it mutates to a human to human form (a virulence ‘shift’) – conceivably virulence may decline, but don’t hold your breath.
●The last ‘great’ flu pandemic occurred in 1918, and killed 1% of all New Zealanders, and c. 50-100,000,000 people worldwide.
●Currently no vaccine is available for H5N1. Work on a vaccine is underway, but until the final form of the virus in humans is known, progress is unlikely. In addition, pharmaceutical companies involved in vaccine production seem unlikely to swap IP with non traditional manufacturers of vaccines.
●Only tools available to stop its spread are the strategies of cordon sanitaire about pockets of infection and the use of a prophylactic –Tamiflu at $70-80 per treatment.
●NZ Government has ordered c. 950 000 doses of Tamiflu to be delivered by the end of 2005. This will provide coverage for c. 20% of the population.
●NZ Medical Council is developing plans for both the exclusion strategy and for the use of Tamiflu. The former includes ring-fencing pockets of infection discovered in NZ, treating all individuals within such pockets with Tamiflu, and excluding all international incoming travelers during any pandemic. In addition all exposed medical professionals and all Police will receive tamiflu should such a pandemic arrive. Protection for the police presumably reflects the concerns over likely public unrest during any pandemic. The best treatment is thus argued to be containment and isolation, but the problems of this strategy with a slow developing but highly infectious disease in obvious. Presumably it does mean a retreat form the work place to safe areas (homes) as soon as any pandemic arrives -i.e., pulling up the drawbridge.
Dr Short argues that this makes sense only if the disease is initially of low virulence and likely to increase with subsequent outbreaks.
● Any such pandemic is likely to take the form of 4-6 successive waves each 5-6 weeks long, with infections from one wave likely to provide immunity for infections in subsequent waves.
●The virulence of H5N1 may decline with successive waves or equally may increase. Which will happen is unclear, but it will influence the sensibility of isolating your family or not from the community during the initial outbreak.
●Tamiflu works by reducing the symptoms of flu and stopping the virus form spreading. It comes in the form of a tablet to be taken daily for the course of 10, has a shelf life of several years, and should be stored below 28 C (i.e. in the fridge). Unfortunately, humans secrete the virus for up to 2 days before developing the symptoms, and for children for up to 15 days post symptom, limiting the possibility of local containment
●Tamiflu effectiveness in humans against H5N1 is unknown, as it has only been trialled in mice! It is contraindicated for infants but this is still under debate.
●Tamiflu is not contraindicated for any common human illness e.g. asthma etc
●Tamiflu remains the best insurance available at this time
●The problem of using Tamiflu is that it may be taken when flu symptoms become apparent, but if the infection is either a cold or some other strain of flu then individual supplies of the drug will be wasted and not available, should the ‘real Thing’ follow soon after
●Buying up of Tamiflu by the general public presents a moral dilemma - does one seek family protection at a time when some medical societies (e.g. Pegasus Health) seek to keep stocks intact for use in local emergencies. Fortunately for those seeking the very greatest protection for their families, many Doctors are prescribing Tamiflu for their patients.
Suggested actions if flu symptoms occur (from Dr Short)
●Standard signs of flu include severe headache, muscle ache, high temperature, coughing and fever.
●Go to bed and rest
●Take 2 Paracetemol at 4-hrly intervals to lower body temperature
●Drink copious quantities of liquids
●Do not overheat. Even though you may feel cold, keeping core body temperatures down is very important.
●Be aware that if after some remission you get sick again, the cause may be bacterial pneumonia and that requires a course of antibiotics
●If H5N1 is thought to be the cause, begin taking Tamiflu as soon as symptoms appear – thus GET YOUR TAMIFLU NOW
If the strain is highly lethal, isolation from the public/rest of family may be the best strategy even by wearing masks, which cut down transmission by c. 80%)
Bird Flu facts/figures
●H5N1 flu occurs in poultry in SE Asia and Russia
●It is carried by a wide range of wild birds in South-east Asia and is spread by
Them e.g., to chickens in central Russia. It has recently been recorded in migratory Bird species in Finland, and because of this threat, the Dutch Government has recently banned the outdoor farming of all poultry. NZ sources some of its Migratory birds from areas that currently have infected wild bird populations and such birds are clearly capable of introducing the infection to NZ. However, bird Flu has yet to be recorded in NZ in any incoming wild birds.
●H5N1 is coming! Only the timing and the rapidly with which it explodes around the world is unknown.
●The virus is highly pathogenic to humans e.g. an outbreak in USA in 1998 resulted in 6 deaths in 18 reported cases of chicken to human transmission (33%). Similar infections have led to the recent death of 150+ folk in SE Asia.
●The death rate following human-to-human transmission is unknown. Mortality rates of 20% of infected humans are expected. Based on mortality data from SE Asia, and on that from the 1918 pandemic, highest mortalities thought likely to occur in fit young males, the aged, pregnant women, and those immunologically compromised. Some data exists to suggest lower mortality in infants and those who have been infected with or immunized against distantly related strains of the virus in recent years. However, this is clearly ‘best guess’ information.
●The virulence of the current H5N1 strain may change when it mutates to a human to human form (a virulence ‘shift’) – conceivably virulence may decline, but don’t hold your breath.
●The last ‘great’ flu pandemic occurred in 1918, and killed 1% of all New Zealanders, and c. 50-100,000,000 people worldwide.
●Currently no vaccine is available for H5N1. Work on a vaccine is underway, but until the final form of the virus in humans is known, progress is unlikely. In addition, pharmaceutical companies involved in vaccine production seem unlikely to swap IP with non traditional manufacturers of vaccines.
●Only tools available to stop its spread are the strategies of cordon sanitaire about pockets of infection and the use of a prophylactic –Tamiflu at $70-80 per treatment.
●NZ Government has ordered c. 950 000 doses of Tamiflu to be delivered by the end of 2005. This will provide coverage for c. 20% of the population.
●NZ Medical Council is developing plans for both the exclusion strategy and for the use of Tamiflu. The former includes ring-fencing pockets of infection discovered in NZ, treating all individuals within such pockets with Tamiflu, and excluding all international incoming travelers during any pandemic. In addition all exposed medical professionals and all Police will receive tamiflu should such a pandemic arrive. Protection for the police presumably reflects the concerns over likely public unrest during any pandemic. The best treatment is thus argued to be containment and isolation, but the problems of this strategy with a slow developing but highly infectious disease in obvious. Presumably it does mean a retreat form the work place to safe areas (homes) as soon as any pandemic arrives -i.e., pulling up the drawbridge.
Dr Short argues that this makes sense only if the disease is initially of low virulence and likely to increase with subsequent outbreaks.
● Any such pandemic is likely to take the form of 4-6 successive waves each 5-6 weeks long, with infections from one wave likely to provide immunity for infections in subsequent waves.
●The virulence of H5N1 may decline with successive waves or equally may increase. Which will happen is unclear, but it will influence the sensibility of isolating your family or not from the community during the initial outbreak.
●Tamiflu works by reducing the symptoms of flu and stopping the virus form spreading. It comes in the form of a tablet to be taken daily for the course of 10, has a shelf life of several years, and should be stored below 28 C (i.e. in the fridge). Unfortunately, humans secrete the virus for up to 2 days before developing the symptoms, and for children for up to 15 days post symptom, limiting the possibility of local containment
●Tamiflu effectiveness in humans against H5N1 is unknown, as it has only been trialled in mice! It is contraindicated for infants but this is still under debate.
●Tamiflu is not contraindicated for any common human illness e.g. asthma etc
●Tamiflu remains the best insurance available at this time
●The problem of using Tamiflu is that it may be taken when flu symptoms become apparent, but if the infection is either a cold or some other strain of flu then individual supplies of the drug will be wasted and not available, should the ‘real Thing’ follow soon after
●Buying up of Tamiflu by the general public presents a moral dilemma - does one seek family protection at a time when some medical societies (e.g. Pegasus Health) seek to keep stocks intact for use in local emergencies. Fortunately for those seeking the very greatest protection for their families, many Doctors are prescribing Tamiflu for their patients.
Suggested actions if flu symptoms occur (from Dr Short)
●Standard signs of flu include severe headache, muscle ache, high temperature, coughing and fever.
●Go to bed and rest
●Take 2 Paracetemol at 4-hrly intervals to lower body temperature
●Drink copious quantities of liquids
●Do not overheat. Even though you may feel cold, keeping core body temperatures down is very important.
●Be aware that if after some remission you get sick again, the cause may be bacterial pneumonia and that requires a course of antibiotics
●If H5N1 is thought to be the cause, begin taking Tamiflu as soon as symptoms appear – thus GET YOUR TAMIFLU NOW
If the strain is highly lethal, isolation from the public/rest of family may be the best strategy even by wearing masks, which cut down transmission by c. 80%)
posted by Prognosian | 11:16 am
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