There is too much news relevant to what I believe is the impending global financial implosion to post!! ;)
Gold hitting high ($US900), markets losing 10%, real-estate in US and UK declining... my prognosis fwiw...
US leads world into global recession/depression over next 4-5years (maybe into funk like Japan has been in from 90s)- commodity, property and share-markets enter bear phase. NZ, being the ‘tail-end of the dog’, is whipped badly although appears resilient at first (the commodity boom will delay this but our economy is small and easily manipulated (eg NZD) and NZ consumers have a high debt/income ratio (in world?), property price inflation at world high, etc.) Look at buying into shares (NZO, PRC, NZR, ports, rail, etc), property, Liontamer Water Fund, Chinese Markets, as markets finally bottom- how many years? Maybe when people start looking at you askance when you mention buying X as an investment!
Comments:
Jan2008: Factors from Oct 06 (> US consumer negativity as property busts, leading to lack of demand for product-producing (esp. Asian) nations, a weak dollar, higher interest rates (??), lower commodity prices, etc, across the world and eventually a global depression<) really seem to be coming home now… sub-prime fallout, much talk of US recession, etc. Global economy looks shakier than ever before but world banks are putting in a lot of taxpayer cash to prop up (restore liquidity). With collapse of sub-prime, US/UK/Europe have dropped interest rates which may create further inflation. However, there is now a big downturn in US and UK house prices.
June 2007: Strategy to maintain capital. NZD back up again as interest rates hiked, we seem definitely into GMorgan’s ‘hard landing’ scenario. Looking for correction in NZD as Uridashi trades unwind in late-07 (definite down-trend began about Aug 07) or as NZ economy fundamentals show we are a bad risk. It is excess global (Asian) liquidity that has kept NZ up over 2000s: shown with NZD-JPY declining and people become more risk adverse.
