NZ Electricity 2006 II- No Rolling Blackouts

Phew- now I'm reassured!

Energy Minister rules out winter power cuts
14.03.06 2.00pm

Energy Minister David Parker has gone out a limb and ruled out rolling power blackouts this winter. A number of players in the electricity sector have warned that current low hydro-lake levels could see the lights go out if heavy rain failed to arrive. Mr Parker, a newcomer to Cabinet, said he could assure the public there would be no rolling blackouts this winter. Rolling blackouts are used in times of short power supply to force a reduction in energy use. Mr Parker was relying on advice from the Electricity Commission that even if New Zealand had a one-in-60-year drought there would be no power shortage. "The Electricity Commission is still confident that it is most unlikely we will have an electricity shortage this winter; it is possible, but very, very unlikely." Mr Parker said Comalco's decision to cut back production at its Bluff aluminium smelter was not due to fears that power would run out, but a decision not to pay a higher price due to the relative short supply. Asked if he was ruling out rolling power cuts this winter, Mr Parker replied: "Very unlikely, I can assure you... yeah, no rolling blackouts this winter."

NZ Electricity- Power shortages over Winter '06?

Snipped this as I thought it'd be interesting to see which of these two guys has his agenda stuffed up.

Energy Chiefs Clash
02 March 2006
By MARTA STEEMAN

Two of the biggest names in the electricity industry are at loggerheads - one warning of a tight power supply this winter and future blackouts, the other dismissing the fears as a myth.
Meridian Energy chief Keith Turner says Auckland may face blackouts during the 2011 Rugby World Cup if Transpower's grid upgrade is delayed, and power supplies may also be tight this winter
"We want a black result. We want an All Black win (in 2011), not a bloody blackout," he said.
But Electricity Commission chairman Roy Hemmingway says it is a myth there is a high risk of Auckland blackouts from 2010 and another myth that there will not be enough power this winter.
Concern is growing in the industry that New Zealand faces another power crisis this year - for the third winter in just five years – unless heavy rain fills hydro power lakes soon.
Dr Turner said lake storage was tracking similarly to 1976 and 1992.
"I think we are sitting in a very tenuous situation. This winter is the tightest winter we have ever had as a nation ... "If we don't get some serious rain I think we are going to have a very tight winter."
He fears that Auckland will face blackouts from 2010 if Transpower's controversial $622 million upgrade of transmission lines from Taupo to Auckland is not approved this year.
But Mr Hemmingway told the annual National Power Conference in Auckland yesterday that it was not the case that electricity supply would be short this winter.
More than 200 power sector leaders were at the conference.
Mr Hemmingway is charged with ensuring there is sufficient supply even in a one-in-60 dry year.
Public conservation campaigns are to be a last resort.

Dr Turner, an industry veteran of 37 years, had the opposite view.
He raised the spectre of blackouts in Auckland during the world cup if Transpower's grid upgrade plans were delayed.
"Are we going to black out Auckland in the face of that event?" And he said for security of supply this winter, serious rain was needed soon.
Mr Hemmingway, in the regulator's seat for 2-1/2 years, is under pressure from the industry as he and five other commission members decide whether Transpower's "pylon plan" should proceed or be replaced by alternatives such as power stations close to Auckland.
Their draft decision has been delayed till March 28 from an original schedule of March 10.
Dr Turner believes Mr Hemmingway favours local generation in combination with some transmission line spending.
Mr Hemmingway said that though hydro storage "was not in a good place" at 75 per cent of average, he believed there would be enough power this winter.
On the basis of the commission's modelling, using 74 years of historic inflow data, there was only a one-in-74 chance of a shortage.
"Chances are very good we will not have a supply problem this winter if everybody behaves in an appropriate commercial manner," he said.
"We're in decent shape."
Genesis chief executive Murray Jackson joined Dr Turner in disputing this.
Mr Jackson said thermal generators like Genesis, which runs the coal-fired Huntly power station, did not have spare capacity to cover for hydro power stations that cut production to save water for winter.
An electricity lines company representative said Mr Hemmingway's approach was like saying you don't have to abandon ship till you have hit the iceberg.
On risks to Auckland's electricity supply from 2010, Mr Hemmingway said there were some intermediate investments in the Auckland area "that we think we could rely on to get electricity into Auckland past 2010", even if big new transmission was not able to be built.
The commission was looking at alternatives, including new local power plants, to see if they were less expensive and did the same job as Transpower's transmission upgrade in the North Island.